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Recent polls suggest that incumbent US The president would beat almost certain Republican challenger, businessman Mitt Romney. According to ABC News, "a most of registered voters across 12 swing states for the first time backs The president." The President "leads Romney with a 51 to 42 percent margin".
This is a about face February, when "the president trailed Romney inside the swing state match-up, 46 to 48 percent." The support was driven by women under 50, less than 50 % of whom supported the president in February. Over 60% of women under 50 said they preferred Obama, with Romney receiving 30% of support. This is a 14-point drop for Romney since February. Among women overall, Obama holds an 18-point lead over Romney. Romney has one vote more, in support, among men.
Your swing states are all-important for the 2012 Presidential election. Furthermore worrying for Romney is that - according to Gallup - enthusiasm is waning among his supporters. Among pressing issues are relations with Iran; immigration; the geopolitical threat from China and, first and foremost, the debt America has (and its healthcare implications).
Both Obama and Romney have talked tough on Iran; immigration and China - although how different a Romney presidency will be, with regards to these issues, is debatable. Chances of military action against Iran is going to be greater once the election has ended, although it carries huge risks.
Immigration has become tricky since the largest groups - Hispanics and Mexicans - are far too large in number for any politician to look to be unfairly targeting immigrants from Latin America. The intricate relationship with China - not least that country's huge holding people debt - makes the concept of an insurance plan gear-change difficult to imagine.
America's largest problem remains its debt. The Committee to get a Responsible Federal Budget found out that of the four Republican candidates, only the elder statesman Ron Paul would significantly slash America's deficit.
Romney - the almost certain winner - would add around $250bn. His reduction of federal workforce costs could trim around $530bn but his reductions on corporation tax could give a further $1 trillion. Romney would actually increase debt interest by $40bn.
His tax cutting plans - cutting marginal rates for folks by 20% - could add $2.6 trillion to the debt. Romney plans to reduce the top rate paid on income from 35% to 28%. Americans in the lowest bracket would pay 8% not 10%. Americans closer to the middle would pay 20% not 25%.
Taxes would continue interest, dividends and capital gains for taxpayers who make lower than $200,000 per year. Estate tax would go there would be a lowering of the speed paid by corporations from 35% to 25%. Romney would cap spending at 20% of GDP, reduce non-security discretionary accounts by 5% and pursue a balanced budget amendment.
But while Romney's spending caps are a step in the proper direction, now's not the top for overall tax cuts. But Barack Obama fairs worse. In September, Obama lay out his promises to find budget savings of $3 trillion, although he wants $1.5 trillion in new revenue.
While Obama applies to the tax cuts, unlike Romney he does not change spending. Social security remains unchanged and healthcare finds only $320bn in savings, without any raising from the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 67. Obama has actually included with the deficit. Even his defence cuts have been known as a "mirage" through the Financial Times.
In reality America wants a mix of a couple of tax rises, massive cuts to social spending and the government, along with a trimming of defence. While national security should not be compromised, one wonders what eventuality will necessitate military bases in Norfolk, Heidelberg and Naples.
Obama's Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner was chided by Head of the House Budget Committee Paul Ryan (a possible Romney running mate) for neglecting to cut America's debt. While debt stabilises until 2020, it skyrockets thereafter and hits 400% of GDP by mid-century - a program which the Congressional Budget Office claims, would "shut down" the usa economy in Many years time.
As former US Comptroller General David Walker argues, it is the future social security and healthcare cost which - if nothing changes - will almost certainly bankrupt the usa. The united states cannot inflate its way to avoid it of their debt, without dramatically pushing in the costs of social programmes and hiking up interest on its debt. To cultivate using this financial vortex, America would need 10% or even more annual GDP growth from this level on in.
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In fact, a Republican Congress could force whether Democrat or Republic president's hand, while Paul Ryan would force Romney to make steeper cuts. But whoever is elected in 2012 must move quickly. The spotlight is currently on Europe. However it won't be forever.